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TL;DR

  • Win rate is deals won divided by deals closed, so every duplicate deal changes the math.
  • Duplicate lost deals are the most common kind, and they push the win rate down.
  • Duplicate won deals push it up, and usually show up in revenue too.
  • Find duplicate deals by company, amount and close date, and review them by hand before merging.
  • Dedupely merges duplicate deals in HubSpot, Pipedrive and Close; you pick which stage, amount and owner win.

Pipeline value gets most of the attention when people talk about duplicate deals. Win rate is quieter, but it matters just as much: it's used to forecast, to set targets and to judge reps. And because it's a ratio, a few duplicates can move it more than you'd expect.

This post covers how duplicate deals change win rate, which direction they push it and how to find them.

How win rate is calculated

Win rate is usually:

Deals won ÷ (deals won + deals lost)

Some teams count by number of deals, others by value. Either way, every duplicate deal adds to one side or both.

Which duplicates push it which way

Duplicate Effect on win rate
A lost deal entered twice Win rate goes down: one loss counts as two
A won deal entered twice Win rate goes up, and revenue is overstated
An old lost deal plus a new won deal for the same opportunity Win rate goes down, if the old one should have been reopened instead
Open duplicates later closed as lost to clean up Win rate goes down, from losses that never happened

The last one is the most common. Someone finds duplicate open deals and closes the extras as "lost". The pipeline looks right, but each cleanup creates a lost deal that wasn't a real loss.

Don't close duplicates as lost

When you find duplicate deals, merge them, or use a separate closed reason like "Duplicate" that your win rate report leaves out. Closing them as lost puts a fake loss into every win rate report from then on.

How to find duplicate deals

Deals rarely have an email to match on. Use a combination:

  1. The same company or account.
  2. A similar amount, or the same products.
  3. Close dates or created dates within a few weeks of each other.
  4. The same contact on both deals.

Review every set by hand. Two deals with the same company and amount can be two real purchases, like an annual renewal and an add-on.

After you merge

  • Recalculate win rate for recent periods, so forecasts use the real number.
  • Fix past "lost" duplicates by changing their reason to "Duplicate" and leaving them out of reports, if you can't merge them.
  • Stop new duplicates at the source: usually deals created from forms, integrations or by two reps on one account.

How Dedupely helps

Dedupely can find and merge deals in HubSpot (Deals), Pipedrive (Deals) and Close (Opportunities). You can match deals on any synced field, like company, amount or close date, and send sets to Manual Review so a person decides each one. Merge Rules let you choose which stage, amount, close date and owner win, and you can preview the merged deal before merging. Each merge is logged in Merge History. Archived Pipedrive deals can't be merged.

Find duplicate deals

Fix the denominator

Duplicate deals change win rate in both directions, and the most common cleanup, closing extras as lost, pushes it down with losses that never happened. Merge duplicate deals instead, or use a separate "Duplicate" reason, and recalculate the rate once the data is clean.

Frequently asked questions

Do duplicate deals affect win rate?

Yes. Duplicate lost deals lower it, and duplicate won deals raise it and overstate revenue.

Should I close duplicate deals as lost?

No. It adds losses that never happened. Merge them, or use a separate "Duplicate" closed reason that reports leave out.

How do I find duplicate deals?

Match on company, amount and close or created date, and review each set by hand.

Can two deals for the same company be legitimate?

Yes. A renewal and an add-on, or two separate purchases, can look alike. Review before merging.

What should I do after merging?

Recalculate win rate for recent periods and fix the source that's creating duplicate deals.